Vermont Long Range Transportation Business Plan


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About - Scenario Planning

Scenario Planning

Policies will be developed to work under a variety of scenarios. A scenario consists of a combination of different assumptions about driving factors such as the aging of the population, energy prices, changing energy sources, land use patterns, economic changes (such as shifting from a manufacturing/agricultural dominated economy to one with more service/tourism/information related jobs), and security.

The table below lists the typical steps followed in Scenario Planning and describes their purpose. Please visit the Federal Highway Administration's Scenario Planning web site for examples of applications and additional information.

[It] is better to get the future imprecisely right than to get the future precisely wrong...Scenario planning enables stakeholders to consider various possibilities and identify policies that can adapt to changing circumstances.

– (Public Roads Magazine Article: Scenario Planning a New Paradigm in Transportation Decision Making, September 2005.)

Overview

Tasks

About Scenario Planning

Schedule

Scenario Planning Step	Purpose
Step 1: Research Driving Forces	Identify state, national, and global trends and events with the potential to affect transportation demand and the transportation system.
Step 2: Determine Patterns of Interaction	How do driving forces interact to create different scenarios?
Step 3: Create Scenarios	Change assumptions about trends and driving factors to develop different scenarios.
Step 4: Analyze Scenarios	Use maps, graphs, and other visualization tools to show how the scenarios affect key indicators related to long range transportation plan vision and goals.
Step 5: Evaluate Scenarios	Recommend policies to achieve vision and goals under different scenarios.
Step 6: Monitor	After the plan is complete, monitor progress using performance measures, make adjustments if necessary, and incorporate changes in the next plan update.